Objectives for Multiple-Species Conservation Planning

Abstract:  The first step in conservation planning is to identify objectives. Most stated objectives for conservation, such as to maximize biodiversity outcomes, are too vague to be useful within a decision-making framework. One way to clarify the issue is to define objectives in terms of the risk of extinction for multiple species. Although the assessment of extinction risk for single species is common, few researchers have formulated an objective function that combines the extinction risks of multiple species. We sought to translate the broad goal of maximizing the viability of species into explicit objectives for use in a decision-theoretic approach to conservation planning. We formulated several objective functions based on extinction risk across many species and illustrated the differences between these objectives with simple examples. Each objective function was the mathematical representation of an approach to conservation and emphasized different levels of threat. Our objectives included minimizing the joint probability of one or more extinctions, minimizing the expected number of extinctions, and minimizing the increase in risk of extinction from the best-case scenario. With objective functions based on joint probabilities of extinction across species, any correlations in extinction probabilities had to be known or the resultant decisions were potentially misleading. Additive objectives, such as the expected number of extinctions, did not produce the same anomalies. We demonstrated that the choice of objective function is central to the decision-making process because alternative objective functions can lead to a different ranking of management options. Therefore, decision makers need to think carefully in selecting and defining their conservation goals.     

Rao-Blackwell versions of the Horvitz-Thompson and Hansen-Hurwitz in adaptive cluster sampling

Thompson (1990) introduced the adaptive cluster sampling design and developed two unbiased estimators, the modified Horvitz-Thompson (HT) and Hansen-Hurwitz (HH) estimators, for this sampling design and noticed that these estimators are not a function of the minimal sufficient statistics. He applied the Rao-Blackwell theorem to improve them. Despite having smaller variances, these latter estimators have not received attention because a suitable method or algorithm for computing them was not available. In this paper we obtain closed forms of the Rao-Blackwell versions which can easily be computed. We also show that the variance reduction for the HH estimator is greater than that for the HT estimator using Rao-Blackwell versions. When the condition for extra samples is 0$$ " align="middle" border="0"> , one can expect some Rao-Blackwell improvement in the HH estimator but not in the HT estimator. Two examples are given.     

海洋纤毛虫实验生态学研究Ⅲ:纤毛虫摄食胁迫对弧菌(Vibrio sp.)种群增长的影响

为揭示纤毛虫对弧菌 (Vibriosp.)种群增长的影响 ,利用实验生态学方法对弧菌在海水养殖水体中两种常见的纤毛虫原生动物 ,扇形游仆虫 (EuplotesvannusM櫣ｌｌｅｒ)和海洋尾丝虫 (UronemamarinumDujardin) ,摄食胁迫下的种群增长过程进行了探讨 .数据分析显示 ,弧菌的种群密度在纤毛虫的指数增长期高于对照组 ,但在纤毛虫种群生长平衡期则显著低于对照组 (P <0 .0 5 ) ,在纤毛虫种群生长衰退期则呈回升的趋势 .结果同时还表明 ,海洋纤毛虫的摄食胁迫对弧菌的繁殖具有明显的激活效应 ,但对其种群生长起着显著的抑制作用 .此外 ,本工作也进一步证实了食菌性纤毛虫对改良水质和维持一个健康的养殖环境所具有的积极作用 .图 6参 15     

西双版纳民族村寨土地利用的景观影响

采用参与性农村评估法 ,并结合地方农业统计年鉴 ,从村级水平对西双版纳巴卡小寨和大卡老寨 2个民族村寨土地利用的景观影响作了初步调查与分析。结果表明 ,人多地少的巴卡小寨因无大面积的公益林等自然景观而使其人为干扰强度指数为 3.196 5 ,较大卡老寨强烈 ;受干扰景观中的粮食作物地和经济作物园斑块较多 ,景观破碎度分别为 0 .0 6 92和 0 .0 980hm-2 ,均大于大卡老寨。大卡老寨因为具有公益林、风景林和水体 ,其景观多样性为 1.4 5 95 ,以公益林、经济作物园和粮食作物地为优势景观 ;大卡老寨景观均匀度和优势度分别为 0 .6 6 4 2和 0 .7377,均大于巴卡小寨。 2个村寨的粮食作物地和经济作物园面积较大 ,表明粮食生产与经济作物种植是山区发展的出路所在 ,而水田面积的扩大和稳定有利于提高人口承载力。各景观类型的规模因受市场、技术等方面的影响而逐年波动 ,但从长时间来看又趋于稳定。民族文化政策和市场对 2个村寨土地利用和景观格局影响较大。     

Relative Importance of Reproductive Biology and Establishment Ecology for Persistence of a Rare Shrub in a Fragmented Landscape

Abstract:  Verticordia fimbrilepis (Turcz) ssp. fimbrilepis (Myrtaceae) is an endangered shrub that occurs in a number of populations varying in size and landscape context. We compared the importance of factors associated with its reproductive biology with that of factors influencing the regeneration niche in survival of small, isolated populations in contrasting habitat fragments. Small populations on road verges had equal or greater diversity of insect visitors to flowers, rates of pollination, and seed production compared with larger populations in conservation reserves. V. fimbrilepis seeds remained dormant in the soil for at least 30 months, and germination was stimulated by smoke. Plants were killed by fire, but mass recruitment from soil-stored seed reserves occurred in the first and second winters following fire. Our studies showed some seedling recruitment between fires, but this was strongly related to the availability of competition-free establishment sites. Whether this is enough to replace older plants as they die and thereby sustain stable populations is unknown and probably varies with the landscape. Environmental variation between fire episodes influenced population size. Drought increased mortality, but wetter years encouraged interfire recruitment. Most populations are declining and cannot recover without the occurrence of fire. In a fragmented agricultural landscape, fire suppression is the primary management practice. This may adversely affect rare species such as V. fimbrilepis and others with similar life histories that rely on a particular fire regime to persist. Population persistence is more likely to be related to stochastic environmental events than to factors associated with reproductive biology.     

现代分子生物技术在废水菌群监测中的应用

荧光原位杂交、DNA指纹等现代分子生物技术在废水治理过程中得到了广泛的应用。对现代分子技术的分类及其在废水菌群监测中的应用进行了简要的论述,并通过各类技术间的比较,提出其潜在的问题及应用前景。     

乌梁素海鱼类种群变化的研究

根据乌梁素海实地调查和资料分析 ,对乌梁素海鱼类种类、区系特征、鱼类种群现状及变化进行分析 ,并提出保护鱼类种群及鱼类资源的建议     

黄土高原自然资源和生态环境的人口压力及其缓解途径的探讨

本文主要讨论了三个问题。第一,黄土高原自然资源和生态环境受到破坏,其主要原因是人口压力;第二,治理和开发都非常必要并有一定效果,但是很难在几十年内彻底解决黄土高原的人口压力问题;第三,应该考虑黄土高原的人口向沿海及长江走廊经济开发区流动以缓解人口压力。